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Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Mykel J. Kochenderfer

Title Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author Mykel J. Kochenderfer
Publisher MIT Press
Release 2015-07-17
Category Computers
Total Pages 352
ISBN 0262029251
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This book provides an introduction to the challenges of decision making under uncertainty from a computational perspective. It presents both the theory behind decision making models and algorithms and a collection of example applications that range from speech recognition to aircraft collision avoidance. Focusing on two methods for designing decision agents, planning and reinforcement learning, the book covers probabilistic models, introducing Bayesian networks as a graphical model that captures probabilistic relationships between variables; utility theory as a framework for understanding optimal decision making under uncertainty; Markov decision processes as a method for modeling sequential problems; model uncertainty; state uncertainty; and cooperative decision making involving multiple interacting agents

Title Decision Making under Uncertainty
Author Tapan Biswas
Publisher Macmillan International Higher Education
Release 1997-08-04
Category Decision making
Total Pages 215
ISBN 1349258172
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

At the core of microeconomic theory lie the economics of uncertainty and the economics of games and decisions. This text for undergraduates and specialists in mathematical economics links game theory with decision-making under uncertainty.

Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty by Vincent A. W. J. Marchau

Title Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty
Author Vincent A. W. J. Marchau
Publisher Springer
Release 2019-04-27
Category Business & Economics
Total Pages 405
ISBN 9783030052515
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This open access book focuses on both the theory and practice associated with the tools and approaches for decisionmaking in the face of deep uncertainty. It explores approaches and tools supporting the design of strategic plans under deep uncertainty, and their testing in the real world, including barriers and enablers for their use in practice. The book broadens traditional approaches and tools to include the analysis of actors and networks related to the problem at hand. It also shows how lessons learned in the application process can be used to improve the approaches and tools used in the design process. The book offers guidance in identifying and applying appropriate approaches and tools to design plans, as well as advice on implementing these plans in the real world. For decisionmakers and practitioners, the book includes realistic examples and practical guidelines that should help them understand what decisionmaking under deep uncertainty is and how it may be of assistance to them. Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice is divided into four parts. Part I presents five approaches for designing strategic plans under deep uncertainty: Robust Decision Making, Dynamic Adaptive Planning, Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways, Info-Gap Decision Theory, and Engineering Options Analysis. Each approach is worked out in terms of its theoretical foundations, methodological steps to follow when using the approach, latest methodological insights, and challenges for improvement. In Part II, applications of each of these approaches are presented. Based on recent case studies, the practical implications of applying each approach are discussed in depth. Part III focuses on using the approaches and tools in real-world contexts, based on insights from real-world cases. Part IV contains conclusions and a synthesis of the lessons that can be drawn for designing, applying, and implementing strategic plans under deep uncertainty, as well as recommendations for future work.

Decision Making under Uncertainty by Kerstin Preuschoff

Title Decision Making under Uncertainty
Author Kerstin Preuschoff
Publisher Frontiers Media SA
Release 2015-06-16
Category
Total Pages
ISBN 2889194663
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

Most decisions in life are based on incomplete information and have uncertain consequences. To successfully cope with real-life situations, the nervous system has to estimate, represent and eventually resolve uncertainty at various levels. A common tradeoff in such decisions involves those between the magnitude of the expected rewards and the uncertainty of obtaining the rewards. For instance, a decision maker may choose to forgo the high expected rewards of investing in the stock market and settle instead for the lower expected reward and much less uncertainty of a savings account. Little is known about how different forms of uncertainty, such as risk or ambiguity, are processed and learned about and how they are integrated with expected rewards and individual preferences throughout the decision making process. With this Research Topic we aim to provide a deeper and more detailed understanding of the processes behind decision making under uncertainty.

Title Social and Economic Factors in Decision Making under Uncertainty
Author Kinga Posadzy
Publisher Linköping University Electronic Press
Release 2017-11-16
Category
Total Pages 16
ISBN 9176854213
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

The objective of this thesis is to improve the understanding of human behavior that goes beyond monetary rewards. In particular, it investigates social influences in individual’s decision making in situations that involve coordination, competition, and deciding for others. Further, it compares how monetary and social outcomes are perceived. The common theme of all studies is uncertainty. The first four essays study individual decisions that have uncertain consequences, be it due to the actions of others or chance. The last essay, in turn, uses the advances in research on decision making under uncertainty to predict behavior in riskless choices. The first essay, Fairness Versus Efficiency: How Procedural Fairness Concerns Affect Coordination, investigates whether preferences for fair rules undermine the efficiency of coordination mechanisms that put some individuals at a disadvantage. The results from a laboratory experiment show that the existence of coordination mechanisms, such as action recommendations, increases efficiency, even if one party is strongly disadvantaged by the mechanism. Further, it is demonstrated that while individuals’ behavior does not depend on the fairness of the coordination mechanism, their beliefs about people’s behavior do. The second essay, Dishonesty and Competition. Evidence from a stiff competition environment, explores whether and how the possibility to behave dishonestly affects the willingness to compete and who the winner is in a competition between similarly skilled individuals. We do not find differences in competition entry between competitions in which dishonesty is possible and in which it is not. However, we find that due to the heterogeneity in propensity to behave dishonestly, around 20% of winners are not the best-performing individuals. This implies that the efficient allocation of resources cannot be ensured in a stiff competition in which behavior is unmonitored. The third essay, Tracing Risky Decision Making for Oneself and Others: The Role of Intuition and Deliberation, explores how individuals make choices under risk for themselves and on behalf of other people. The findings demonstrate that while there are no differences in preferences for taking risks when deciding for oneself and for others, individuals have greater decision error when choosing for other individuals. The differences in the decision error can be partly attributed to the differences in information processing; individuals employ more deliberative cognitive processing when deciding for themselves than when deciding for others. Conducting more information processing when deciding for others is related to the reduction in decision error. The fourth essay, The Effect of Decision Fatigue on Surgeons’ Clinical Decision Making, investigates how mental depletion, caused by a long session of decision making, affects surgeon’s decision to operate. Exploiting a natural experiment, we find that surgeons are less likely to schedule an operation for patients who have appointment late during the work shift than for patients who have appointment at the beginning of the work shift. Understanding how the quality of medical decisions depends on when the patient is seen is important for achieving both efficiency and fairness in health care, where long shifts are popular. The fifth essay, Preferences for Outcome Editing in Monetary and Social Contexts, compares whether individuals use the same rules for mental representation of monetary outcomes (e.g., purchases, expenses) as for social outcomes (e.g., having nice time with friends). Outcome editing is an operation in mental accounting that determines whether individuals prefer to first combine multiple outcomes before their evaluation (integration) or evaluate each outcome separately (segregation). I find that the majority of individuals express different preferences for outcome editing in the monetary context than in the social context. Further, while the results on the editing of monetary outcomes are consistent with theoretical predictions, no existing model can explain the editing of social outcomes.

Title Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author Edi Karni
Publisher
Release 1985
Category Business & Economics
Total Pages 147
ISBN
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This book presents a self-contained, comprehensive, and unified treatment of the theory of decision making under uncertainty with state dependent preferences. The author begins by setting forth axiomatic foundations of subjective expected utility theory with stat-dependent preferences. He then develops measures of risk aversion and of risk for state-dependent utility functions and shows how they can be applied to decisions involving health and life insurance.

Decision Making Under Uncertainty by Claude Greengard

Title Decision Making Under Uncertainty
Author Claude Greengard
Publisher Springer Science & Business Media
Release 2012-12-06
Category Mathematics
Total Pages 164
ISBN 146849256X
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

In the ideal world, major decisions would be made based on complete and reliable information available to the decision maker. We live in a world of uncertainties, and decisions must be made from information which may be incomplete and may contain uncertainty. The key mathematical question addressed in this volume is "how to make decision in the presence of quantifiable uncertainty." The volume contains articles on model problems of decision making process in the energy and power industry when the available information is noisy and/or incomplete. The major tools used in studying these problems are mathematical modeling and optimization techniques; especially stochastic optimization. These articles are meant to provide an insight into this rapidly developing field, which lies in the intersection of applied statistics, probability, operations research, and economic theory. It is hoped that the present volume will provide entry to newcomers into the field, and stimulation for further research.

Title Guidebook for Supporting Decision Making Under Uncertainties
Author Ettore Piccirillo
Publisher World Scientific
Release 2008
Category Business logistics
Total Pages 148
ISBN 9812770089
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This book provides much-needed guidance in making sound business decisions for the business leader or decision maker, especially investment appraisal practitioners such as strategic planners, business analysts, financial partners, and supply chain experts. By OC supply chainOCO, the authors mean the network of retailers, distributors, transporters, storage facilities and suppliers that participate in the sale, delivery and production of a particular product. The book begins with an introduction to the concept of decision making under uncertainty and the forces driving the business. A gap in the current knowledge is then discovered as it arises from an analysis of the profitability indicators that are currently being used. With hands-on experience in decision making within the supply chain environment, and coupled with leading-edge mathematical and business formulations, the authors propose how to enrich quantitative and qualitative decision-making measures. This further leads to a decision-making framework and process, supported by a ready-to-use tool (PADOVA). Sample Chapter(s). Chapter 1: Decision Under Uncertainty (163 KB). Contents: Decision Under Uncertainty; Critical Review of Accounting Performance Measures; Critical Review of Strategic Criteria; A Way Forward: Quantitative Decision Making Measures; A Way Forward: Qualitative Decision Making Measures; The Framework. Readership: Investment appraisal practitioners such as strategic planners, business analysts, financial partners, and supply chain experts alike; graduate-level students in business administration or operations management."

Title Decision Making under Uncertainty
Author R.W. Scholz
Publisher Elsevier
Release 1983-11-01
Category Psychology
Total Pages 442
ISBN 9780080866703
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This volume contains the revised papers of an international symposium on research on fallacies, biases, and the development of decision behavior under uncertainty. The papers are organized in five main sections. The Introduction outlines the conceptual framework and how three of the sections - Cognitive Decision Research, Social Interaction, and Development and Epistemology - are interrelated and also how new fields, such as research into developmental questions, can be productively integrated. In the fifth section Comments are collected, which evaluate the impact of the contributions on decision research itself, and also on cognitive psychology, social psychology, economic theory, ant the discipline of mathematics education.

Stochastic Dominance by Haim Levy

Title Stochastic Dominance
Author Haim Levy
Publisher Springer
Release 2015-10-31
Category Business & Economics
Total Pages 505
ISBN 3319217089
Language English, Spanish, and French
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Book Summary:

This fully updated third edition is devoted to the analysis of various Stochastic Dominance (SD) decision rules. It discusses the pros and cons of each of the alternate SD rules, the application of these rules to various research areas like statistics, agriculture, medicine, measuring income inequality and the poverty level in various countries, and of course, to investment decision-making under uncertainty. The book features changes and additions to the various chapters, and also includes two completely new chapters. One deals with asymptotic SD and the relation between FSD and the maximum geometric mean (MGM) rule (or the maximum growth portfolio). The other new chapter discusses bivariate SD rules where the individual’s utility is determined not only by his own wealth, but also by his standing relative to his peer group. Stochastic Dominance: Investment Decision Making under Uncertainty, 3rd Ed. covers the following basic issues: the SD approach, asymptotic SD rules, the mean-variance (MV) approach, as well as the non-expected utility approach. The non-expected utility approach focuses on Regret Theory (RT) and mainly on prospect theory (PT) and its modified version, cumulative prospect theory (CPT) which assumes S-shape preferences. In addition to these issues the book suggests a new stochastic dominance rule called the Markowitz stochastic dominance (MSD) rule corresponding to all reverse-S-shape preferences. It also discusses the concept of the multivariate expected utility and analyzed in more detail the bivariate expected utility case. From the reviews of the second edition: "This book is an economics book about stochastic dominance. ... is certainly a valuable reference for graduate students interested in decision making under uncertainty. It investigates and compares different approaches and presents many examples. Moreover, empirical studies and experimental results play an important role in this book, which makes it interesting to read." (Nicole Bäuerle, Mathematical Reviews, Issue 2007 d)

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